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What does a top look like?
Some charts from historical tops in the Dow, starting with 1901: . The giant gap down above did not happen in a day. The government forced the closure of the NYSE on July 27 (after a crash when the...
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Some more Dow history
Continuing the top series… Be sure to look at the lines on these charts, including RSI trends. If you gave Paul Tudor Jones nothing but graph paper and a ruler and he would still be a star. With price...
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Blame the computers? Bah humbug.
Did the computers drive the Dow down 25% in a week in May 1940 (no, there was no major war news that would have justified such a move): TD Ameritrade Here’s the Dow for the duration of the last...
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Silver superspikes: dollar-bullish, and they don’t last
First, the 25-year monthly chart: - Here’s a chart that goes back further but only goes up to 2010 (I couldn’t figure out how to get barchart.com to draw me the whole thing, but you can just use your...
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A look at the real value of gold on an historical basis.
I like making random gold ratio charts in stockcharts.com since it lets you chart the ratio of anything: gold:oil, gold:copper, gold:SPX, etc: - If you do this kind of analysis on a longer-term basis,...
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Where are we in the secular (post-2000) bear?
Mish Shedlock’s investment management company, Sitka Pacific, provided this chart in their September letter (as a non-client, I only get delayed copies): - One lesson to be learned here, which they...
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Intermediate-term set-up for a gold rally?
Traders have been bearish on gold and gold stocks since late October, the longest stretch in recent years. All such previous instances were followed by significant multi-week rallies. Here’s a daily...
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Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900
Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...
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Hedge funds: Just say no
Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...
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Bristlecone Pine trading
Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor...
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Barrons Big Money Poll shows complacency & love for equities
It amazes me that the most successful managers could be so bullish at a time like this (way overvalued, way overbought, rising Treasury yields, stalled earnings growth), but of course stocks are most...
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What goes up must come down (coffee futures boom-to-bust).
A 9-month mania has become a relentless 2-year bear market, and prices are back where they started: From Futures.Tradingcharts.com From Indexmundi.com, here’s a longer-term view. As is typical of...
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Top developing
An overbought market that has kept the vast majority of investors and traders in the bull camp for several weeks is to be viewed with suspicion. When prices also begin to lose their upward momentum,...
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RSI declining – final warning sign
This is a very expensive and overbought market which few participants believe can decline meaningfully. That alone is dangerous, but now we see signs of technical exhaustion, such as the downtrend in...
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Daylight saving is pointless
Daylight Saving Time doesn’t save energy. It just messes up the seasonal progression of diurnal rhythms, effectively giving us jetlag. The sun was rising a few minutes earlier each week, and now...
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One more datapoint on the equity bubble
The latest Flow of Funds Report (link to pdf) shows that equities comprise a greater share of US household assets than at any point besides the height of the internet bubble. Of course, elevated prices...
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On Flash Boys, why HFT is parasitic, and why it’s over.
It’s my baseline assumption when looking at markets, financial or otherwise, that when something involves no fraud or physical coercion it’s beneficial or innocuous. When you find something damaging...
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